I always wonder about the quotes and the personalities who quotes, that what made the person to say/write such quote and how they can be common to any situation related to crux of the quotes. Like in above quote the main crux is POWER.. Well the above quote is the exact topic of today's blog.
Yes, yes this blog is related to market data only but trying to focus the devil in disguise in Indian Stock Market.
We all know the big players who actually controls the market. They are FPIs and DIIs. They are YIN and YANG of the market. The question is here is who is YIN and who is YANG? Yin represents feminine, cold, dark and passive power while YANG represent masculine, light, warmth and dominating power.
I vote, that FPIs are real YANG of the stock market in INDIA. They are the devil in disguise as well as the friends to those who understand them very well. I will prove this with data below.
Market Confusion:
But why I am relating this concept of YIN & YANG to FPIs & DIIs?
Recently during the Indian Central Election results we all felt some heat of the big players, few got rewarded while many got scared and punished because of the heat of the big players.
If someone is arguing that long term investors do have the impact then why long term investors are selecting the investment options which giving the higher returns, why they do not want convention investment option which give returns of debt investment? Why there is always race between mutual funds and PMS houses to showcase the returns? Observe carefully, the highlights are how our investment option is generating the ALPHA (excess returns, it may be of 1 or 2 % over others).
The drama of Election results actually went to its peak on 3rd June 2024, when market jumped to its new all time high. Market (NIFTY) showed positivity of 3.25% on that day, the reason was given by media was exit polls which were in favour of ruling party. This is true to all extent also about reports from media, because on 4th June, the result day showing complete different picture than exit polls. Market reacted to that very strongly. Market slipped by -5.93%. So even for the long term investors, investing money in the equity market on 4th June 2024, in any form would have made more sense than investing money on 3rd June 2024 on the basis of exit poll results. Investors of 4th June clearly got the discount of 5 to 6% on an average than any others as of now.
Our YANG showed more dominance again, Fiis added Rs.6850.72 Crores in cash segment while Diis added Rs.1913.98 Crs. on 3rd June 24 and very next day Fiis and Diis sold around double than previous day which was Rs. 12436.22 Cr. and 3318.98 Cr. respectively.
FPIs also created 65733 future index long positions by squaring off the 55690 Future Index short on 3rd June 24 as they were positive in cash market, while next they on negative sentiments of the market due to unexpected mismatch may be, FPIs created 35545 Future index shorts positions squaring of nominal longs. Diis played exactly same with the figures of 10000 future index long on 3rd June But squared off 11144 Future index shorts, which ideally shows that they were trying support the market by doing short recovery of future positions,
Market danced to the tune of the FIIs again. I tried to explain my level best about who was dominating and who was supporting the market. To your surprise this game is going on endlessly that Fiis are making the first move and Diis are countering it. In my opinion if DIIs wants to control the market then they should make first move. But they will not YET. The reason will be clear with the following data points.
Recently I had the constructive conversation in my circle, about the inflows and outflows. Yes now a days it has been very important to consider the liquidity. I got opposed on the thought of FPIs still dominating the market, The argument was, Fiis no more controlling the market, Our SIP book only has grown to 20371 Cr. in the month of April 2024 from 13728 Crores of March 2024. The inflows from domestic investors has grown significantly and direct participation in the equity market has grown drastically.
All are true, the data from amfiindia.com suggests all the figures are very correct. But the question remains that whether this inflow is sufficient to counter the moneyflow of FPIs? The answer is BIG NO. Let's find out how:
Amfiindia.com suggests that mutual funds AUM (asset under management) book in India has grown to Rs. 57,25,898 Crores from Rs. 9,45,000 Crores, in the span of 10 years, That is huge jump, It has grown over 6 times in 10 years. I have dissected further with the help of NSDL.
This data shows all the domestic players who are active except NRIs and OCBs investments which normally are routed through either direct equities or occasionally with the help of local players.
**For both tables, Figures are in INR Crores. The data has taken from NSDL. The data is as on May 2024.
The second table represents participants under Foreign Investors. The picture gets more clear here.
The difference of INR 19,04,454 Crores in Equity market makes FPIs, YANG. With this data, I must say that, for DIIs, "DELHI ABHI DUR HAI"..
Coming to our regular data, let have top to bottom approach.
Net Monthly FPI Investments:
Overall FPIs are bearish as we can see the outflow of INR 25862 Crores from Indian equity market. Interestingly they are not negative on overall basis and we can observe the inflow in other markets. This is giving some confidence as negativity in equity market can be due to the big event of elections. Further data ahead will give more clarity during the year.
Countrywise AUC Data:
Top FPIs were happy by maintaining the neutral stance for the Month of May 2024.
There was hardly 0.2% change in total top 10 FPIs total numbers in comparison with last month. US, Singapore, Ireland, Canada, Japan, Norway FPIs looks still positive but inflows has definitely got affected with respect to previous months.
3. Fortnightly Sectoral Shifts:
Whatever the positivity by Top FPIs suggests the buying across many sectors in this month. In the month of April 2024 we saw huge negativity.
Source : NSDL
Below are the gainers and losers:
Gainers:-
Constructions, Capital Goods, Realty, Telecommunications are the favourites of favourites.
IT consistently suggests outflow from last few fortnights, Consumer services, FMCG have joined IT. This may be election results as mentioned in my previous blog.
This is all for this blog. Leave your thoughts, feedback, critics in comment section. Lets grow together.
** Disclaimer: The data given is publically available data. Its is taken from nseindia.com, NSDL, amfiindia.com. The analysis and interpretation is based on personal observations and data records maintained on personal levels. Kindly do not take any trade based on the above data in any segment of the market.
HAPPY INVESTING....
.jpeg)
No comments:
Post a Comment