Hi to all stock market lovers,
After 2 months of tremendous volatility, now market is showing little numbness in volatility index, Index Vix touched to 17.66 and now on 13.61. With lowering of India VIX, market is touching ALL TIME HIGH (ATH) every other day market made sure that the retail investors will remain in confused state.
No, this ATH is not the sign of bull run. We have recently experienced that in bull run, your portfolio will be in the green most of the time, but currently investors portfolio is either neutral or in red as small and mid caps are in the tremendous fear of down move. Unfortunately, investors have avoided FOMO factor by adding excess small and mid caps in their portfolios. Recently invested direct equity investments are definitely bleeding, but investors those who have opted for the safe routes of MF are still maintaining the portfolio alpha (excess returns).
Looking at the market, currently it looks like market is exhausted by the current run, big bears are constantly testing the waters, they have tried in recent past to move the market in negative direction but they have failed for sure. The best part of the big players is, unlike retail investors they change the bus and the direction according to the market mood very quickly. Previously FIIs were bearish and in the last 2 months they were constantly selling the CASH segment.
For the month of January and February 2024 Fiis were negative with the net selling of Rs 51940.6 Crs. DIIs absorbed that selling with net buying of Rs. 52123.93 Crs.
*All the data given are from moneycontrol.com and personal data records, recorded from nseindia.com on daily basis.
It is always observed that whenever big bears wanted to move the market downwards they create negative positions in futures followed by options and then cash, with no rules on short selling they were actually in position to create the huge future short positions and they created it also.
In the month of Jan 24 bear FIIs were carrying around 1.25 lakhs of open big short positions (positions made more than 7.5k in single day, that comes roughly around 10% in single day) in Futures, they tried hard by creating the options bearish positions and selling the cash till Feb 2024, but they got very heavy competition this time and they failed in directing the market in negative direction.
In the first week of the March 24, this month, FIIs are currently carrying only 53k big future short positions and they have closed the rest in the losses. This is not surprising, this pattern in recent past have observed many times even during the state elections. Indian stock market is definitely showing the positivity with the highest ever participants in the market. In my previous blog I have mentioned the Top 10 country wise FPIs and their AUCs (assets under custody), I have also mentioned the who are the bears and who are the bulls from FPIs league, This time bear FPIs have faced the rough patch due to bulls in the stock market.
Moving to monthly data of FPIs which includes FPI monthly net investments, FPI's sector wise shifts and AUC wise FPI change in the investments below.
1. AUC Wise Top 10 FPI data:
This table shows the view of FPIs for the last couple of months.
Source: NSDL, FPI monitor
France, Japan, Singapore FPIs were super bullish for the month of Feb 24 while Canada FPIs prefered profit booking from Indian Equity market. For the percentage change please refer the table.
2. Sector wise FPIs movements:
Source: NSDL, FPI monitor
This table successfully gives the idea that what big players are doing in which sectors, Please find below the top 5 gaining and losing sectors in below tables:
Reality segments is gaining the attention again followed by capital goods and constructions.
This table is self explanatory and no explanation needed.
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