Human mind always reluctant to the constant change, but those who adapts the changes constantly, are the most successful people in the world. May be that is why we worship to the most fickling goddess Lakshmi..
I am here relating the constant changes to the churning in the portfolio. Recent past has proved that the active fund managers in specifically PMSes has out performed the other pmses, not marginally but with the huge difference. If anyone arguing that they have got the boost of the bullish market then point to be noted here that this was the same condition for every fund managers.
The ancient phrase of "Lakshmi chanchal hoti hai" always fits so well in the stock market. Not even only the stock market but money flows like water where there is ditch (low valuations in terms of asset classes). We always have seen the money moving in between stocks, commodities, fixed income, currencies etc.
In this blog, I will try to cover the movement of foreign portfolio investors money in the stock market, which was significant after many months. The reasons for the churns can be logically, the forthcoming elections and financial year ending. Irrespective of the reasons, noticing the changes will aid investors/ traders stock portfolios.
Fortnightly Sectoral Shifts:
Month of March we have seen Nifty moving up and down by almost 3% negating the overall effect, but if you see the graph below, we can clearly relate the movement of Nifty price with the data which I am presenting. Here I am making the assumptions that FPIs have gain the control on the stock market again irrespective of the market participation of retail investors, DIIs, and prop desks. That simply means the trend is now regularized.
 |
Data source: NSDL.
This data publishes every fortnightly. Notice the % changes of the sectors before 15th March 2024, only 3 sectors received the inflow from FPIs they were Telecommunications (11%), FMCG (2%), Chemicals (1%). Rest of the sectors experienced major outflow. That is when the market was at low for the month on 19th Mar 24. Post 19th Mar 24, market showed the positivity and covered the dip. At the end of the March 24, we can see that only 2 sectors that are IT (-10%) and Media entertainment and publications (-2%) were negative. Utilities and diversified sectors gained percentage double digit inflow of the money, while Automobile sector showed sudden positivity after Oct 23.
Normally it has been observed that these kind of movement are very rare and money gradually comes in and goes out from the sector, but as I said, FPIs are keen on the big event and probably wanted to restructure the portfolio, making align to the most probable winning sectors, I have mentioned in previous blog about few sectors like automobiles, FMCG, consumer services etc. are the favourites of big players during the election events.
With this the top 5 gainers from above and losers are as below.
Source: NSDL
This data suggests that there was slight drop in monthly money flow from the top FPIs, French FPIs were among the highest with drawers followed by Japanese FPIs. Singapore FPIs are supporting the Indian stock market big ways as usual, while USA FPIs (sharks of the stock market) were also slightly more positive about Indian Stock Market.
Monthly FPI Net Investments:
This data suggests macro picture about the money flow of FPIs. It clearly suggest that still FPIs are way behind in covering the negativity in the Indian Stock market. So there is still room left for positivity in the stock market. April data is till date data.
.jpeg)
No comments:
Post a Comment