STALKING FPIs- Fortnightly Sectoral Shifts

 Hi all,

To keep informing you about the Smart money movement, adding another chapter of FPI Fortnightly movements. The reference data point should be previous blog of same category which was published on 10th June 2023. 

FPI AUC Country Wise Data:

Previously we saw the monthly % change data for top 10 FPIs investing in India for 6 months period. This data gets updated on MONTHLY basis so this time, data is not available. In next fortnightly blog I will include the data points and changes.  

Sectoral Shift of Smart Money for last 15 days:

Sharing Top 9 top sectorwise gainers and losers on the NET equity basis: 

Telecommunication, Construction, Consumer Durables, Capital Goods are surely maintaining the momentum and looks like favourites of smart money. Last month also there was incremental percentage change (ref. to last blog). In previous month we saw that IT was gaining the momentum but IT sector outflow is noticeable in last 15 days along with the degrowth in metals and mining sector on net basis.

Below are the tables which shows the top gainers and losers on AUC (Asset Under Custody) basis. 

* Mean calculated as 3% of percentage change calculations. 

Same conclusion on AUC level movements too. On AUC level Automobile and power sector looks positive too but not like previous one. Smart money is clearly focusing on the HealthCare sector, we can observe the up move on Net Equity as well as AUC level..  

Cash (Equity) Money Flow of FIIs: 

Sharing the money flow of Fiis and Diis from 1st June 2023 to 15th June 2023 as we are discussing the data on fortnightly basis:

DIIs are also Bullish along with FIIs. Effective cash (equity) moneyflow for 15 day combiningly is around 9541.41 Crores.

Lastly, connecting the dots, Market (NIFTY) missed ATH (all time high) by just 1 point. With this kind of inflows, HOPES are still on for the market to record new ALL TIME HIGH.... 

Leave your thoughts in comments.. Share your views, questions, ideas below. Let me know If you are getting some different perspective with above data...   

**Disclaimer: These are all personal data analysis from the data available in public domain, There is no suggestion of any kind of trade/investment, in any segment in any underlying assets in this blog.Sawari apne saman ki khud jimmedar hai... 

Source of this Data Analysis: NSDL FPI monitor. 

STALKING FPIs- Data For last 2 months

Hi All,

First Blog of this Blog series,    

Covering 1st Data Points and analysis: 

Country wise FPI AUC data activity (Monthly):

Referring to below table, Top 10 FPIs as per the size of investment is given below. This data gives the idea that who all are investing and how much. All the figures in Month column are INR in Cr. While Monthly percentage change data is in Percentage. 

Points to notice:

1. USA FPIs have invested around Rs. 20.47 lakh Crore. in May 2023. US FPIs are clearly dominating the Indian Stock market as per the data

2. Luxembourg, Ireland, Norway, France and UK combining Ly calling as UK FPIs have invested in total Rs.11.48 Lakhs Crores. in May 2023

3. Singapore FPIs have invested around Rs. 3.65 Lakhs Crores  in May 2023

4. From above 4 points it is clear that US and UK (combining Ly) FPIs are heavily invested in India than any other countries FPIs.

5. For the months Dec 22 to Feb 23, There was outflow from FPIs, March 23 was neutral and April and May 23 was positive, It looks like cash inflows and cash outflows of FPIs in last 6 months are the same. 

Now relating this data on market levels (Nifty). Nifty has given flat returns or I must say that they are doing the dance on the tune of FPIs. Refer fig. below. 

In the month of Dec 22, the Total Money inflow is Rs. 48,34,447 Crores while in May 23, It is Rs.48,79,628 Crores. which is 0.93% inflow higher than Dec 22 data. 

The market is up by just 0.36% suggesting the neutral Money flow. Consolidation Phase...

*This money flow is not only in Cash segment from FPIs were are considering all the equity related segments here.

I often get the question, why you track the data of NSE (Nifty) and not BSE? the reason is NSE not only manages Cash Segment but also Derivatives segments, NSE data include all indices like BankNifty, FinNifty etc. So NIFTY is the original complex game and not BSE.

Sectoral Shift of the money in last 2 months:

The data below in table 1. is normally getting published after every 20 days. Data suggest that on 15 days the sectorial shifts happens, Table below only covers the money flow of FPIs in different sectors fortnightly in Indian Stock Market.

 

Table 1. 

Table 2:

Table 2 Suggest the sectoral shifts in last 2 months fortnightly, we are observing that 4 sectors that are Telecommunications, Utilities, Capital Goods and Consumer services are maintaining constant or augmenting money flow, While Reality, Construction, Textile Oil Gas and consumable fuel are on loosing side. Meanwhile for the month of May Metals and mining along with IT & Automobile and components sectors showed up the positive money flow.

Now relating all above data with inclining and declining money flow and the stocks from that sectors we see clear winners as below: 

     Table 3.

The above table suggest the top performing stocks from the gaining sectors. You can track the movement of the the individual stocks for last 2 months. This table I am adding in this blog for showing the relevance only, and I will not share it hereafter to avoid speculations.

**There is no suggestion of buying, selling or holding of these above stocks at all. 

How to relate the above data points with your personal stock portfolios? 

If you are watching the sectorial shifts as and when they are published you will understand that whether to hold, buy, sell any stocks from that sector or not. It is hard to select the stock for buying from the 6000+ stock on Nifty but information is easily available anywhere about stocks and its sector. 

I am sure that individual retail investor at least will not loose heavily on any stock. Like to give a example from above data, one should understand to Trim/Exit/Average the positions in the stocks from loosing sectors like Reality, Construction and textile. 

I am not giving any trading idea here but the restructuring or rebalancing of the stocks with respect to the movements of big player will save you from losses.

So NEVER go against the MONEY FLOW OF Big Players. In Hindi there is saying, "PANI MAIN REHKAR MACHALI SE PANGA KYON LENA.."

Leave your thoughts in comment section. 

Please follow the blog to get the notification directly and if you are getting some new information which is appealing to you share it in your circle. Why should Big Player have all the fun of PROFITS? Let the retail investors like you and me also make some PROFITS....

**Disclaimer: These are all personal data analysis from the data available in public domain, There is no suggestion of any kind of trade/investment, in any segment in any underlying assets in this blog. Sawari apne saman ki khud jimmedar hai... 

Source of this Data Analysis: NSDL FPI monitor. 

Happy Investing.... 

INTRODUCTION

 Hi All, Welcome to my new blog series. 

My Intensions towards this blog series is to publish the data which normally common retail investors do not consider while investing in Stock Market. This data can be very powerful tool as far as the individual stock portfolios are concerned. 

Normally Every investors invest with Fund Managers and also maintain individual stocks portfolios. Fund managers are the experts and they have intel of Fund House as well, so leaving that portfolio aside, lets concentrate the individual stock portfolios. 

Management of Individual Stock Portfolios, in India is very haywire. Following are the ways of selecting the stocks in India for personal portfolios:

1. Selection of the stock by following Telegram/ Whats App universities, blindly. 95% of the time telegram groups with more than 100 people will be loosing the the money of the selected stock because they have followed the suggestion blindly. Most of the times these big groups are created to create the buyers for selling from the portfolio clients. These groups simply provide supply for the demand of selling (**there will be always exceptions to everything), so the buyers from such group acts as dumping ground for big sellers.

2. Most of the times, the stock buying is result of Monkeys Whisper, and we do not know the rationale, fundamentals, technical or even any speculation while buying. 80% of the time this type of selection fails, because no cross check happens while buying the stocks. This type of selection also can give hit ratio of 80% for profits if the information is from trusted source and backed with rationale, fundamentals and/or even speculations but it is totally gamble and depend on the luck if you have such source or not.

3. Few who have some knowledge smartly manage to copy the common stocks appearing most of the funds/ PMSs/ Small cases in personal portfolio, duplicating the stocks without knowing the risk to reward ratio, horizon and the price to buy or sell. 70% of the time this type of selection fails as investor buy the stock duplicating the same stock but most of the time they do not track the changes (rebalancing or restructuring activity in the folios from where they have copied). If they manage to even restructure or rebalance according the the fund/ PMS they are following, it is just a duplication of the same stock with extra transaction cost. This may lead to liquidity crunch when better opportunity comes. It is of course personal choice but yes COST is important factor in everything.

4. Investors (Not Fund managers or Equity researchers) who are associated with Finance or Financial Services or investors who learned the analysis, do there own study and work on fundamentals and technical of stock best in their own capacity. The hit ratio of selection of the stock in this case is quite higher than the previous types of selection of the stocks. Still I can say 45% room to increase the profitability as market never follow single rule, that means Fundamental and Technical are basic studies of the market, market gets driven by either of them at a time, not both at same time. There are another very important drivers of the market, SPECULATIONS and LIQUIDITY.

5. News based buying, No comments of this type of selection of the stock, I am sure everyone has done this and experienced the results. leave your thoughts and experiences in comments if you can..

One can definitely increase the percentage returns of the INDIVIDUAL STOCK PORTFOLIOS by doing 5 simple steps mentioned below:

1. Knowing the individual Risk Appetite while selecting the stocks.

2. Knowing the powerful concept of Money Flow.

3. Knowing WHY to Buy and WHY to exit. 

4. Knowing the activities of Big Players. It can be stock specific or It can be Sector Specific.

5. Maintaining the discipline in keeping stop loss as well as in booking the profits with respect to the changes happening with the money flow in that stock specific sector. 

Now, If you further dig down, you realize that the stock market is like Rabbit Hole, one can not have everything at once, something or other will be missed for sure. But there is smart way to tackle this situation, specially for common people who do not understand the fundamentals and technical analysis. That is POINT NO. 2, Tracking the money flow.

TRACKING MONEYFLOW:

I came to conclusion that tracking money flow is the smartest way to manage the individual portfolios, but it leads to another question : whose money flow?? lets find out below:

People who knows me and tracking my blogs know this for sure but for everyone, there are 4 Categories of the investors in the market. 

1. Clients: This type includes all the retail investors including HNIs.

2. DIIs: Domestic Institutional investors, this type includes institutional investors like, mutual fund houses, banks, insurance firms and others etc.

3. Proprietary Desk (Prop Desk): They are financial institutions, investment bank, brokerage house who are registered with authorizing body of the country (SEBI in India) and they invest in the financial instrument WITH THEIR OWN MONEY not sharing profits to anyone else. Normally they are active more in Derivatives Segments than cash segment. Banks and Financial institutions can register under this category by creating separate desk.

4. FPIs: It includes foreign portfolio investors, Foreign Institutional Investors, Qualified Foreign Investors (QFIs) and sub accounts under QFIs. 

Out of these, 4th category that is FPIs category is the one who have maximum money in India Stock Market, Followed by Prop Desk and DIIs. That is why we normally hear every time about FIIs and money associated with it. 

Here in this blog series, I will try to publish the money flow data of FPIs who are the biggest investors in Indian Stock Markets and who drives the Indian Stock Market. This will include, Fortnightly Sectorial Shifts of money flow in the Indian Stock Market, changes in country wise AUC (asset under custody) data of FPIs. This data will be useful for those who are holding certain stocks and want to align the individual stock portfolio with respect to the activities of the big players (FIIs Only). There will not be any stock buying or selling recommendations in this data. Any stocks which I will be mentioning is with respect to the sectoral money flow and their past performance with it. Past performances is not driver of future performances of the stock so do not trade or invest with this data..

Please Follow the blogs to get the updates each time and share it in your circle if you find the blog series interesting and different than conventional theories of investments....

HAPPY INVESTING.......